EVIDENCE AGGREGATION BENCHMARK / V0.1

Truth is not
popularity.

A focused benchmark testing whether aggregation methods can recover independently grounded truth under overwhelming copying pressure.

DEMONSTRATION WORLD03 : 95independent truth / copied falsehood
3 independent evidence roots ground truth
95 claims one social root

01 / THE CENTRAL BENCHMARK

Which belief is best
supported?

The Minority Prophet Test presents conflicting beliefs, complete ancestry, and hidden ground truth. It measures whether an aggregation method can distinguish independent observation from repeated assertion.

“Can evidence-aware aggregation recover truth when vote counts fail?”

02 / EPISTEMIC OBSERVATORY

World MP-00001

SYNTHETIC WORLD · SEED 7
01

Truth accuracy

0.00baseline
02

Minority recovery

0.00baseline
03

Independent roots

3world
04

Copied claims

95world
ClaimAgentBeliefConfidenceLineage

Demonstration data · No empirical leaderboard score is claimed until the first frozen evaluation run.

03 / NON-NEGOTIABLE PRINCIPLES

Never confuse—

01

ConsensusTruth

02

PopularityEvidence

03

ConfidenceCorrectness

04

ReputationCompetence

05

CorrelationIndependence

06

MajorityReality

04 / REPRODUCIBLE V0.1

Run the
baselines.

minority-prophet / v0.1
$ python -m benchmark --worlds 500 --seed 7

Generating synthetic worlds...
Evaluating reproducible baselines...
Report ready.